Let My People Go

What's Sacred About State Boundaries?

Divorce and secession are two aspects of the same thing: you’re trapped in a union and you want out. Marriages can be broken nowadays, usually, but states cannot secede from the United States; the Civil War established that. You can vote with your feet, and citizens are doing so for the two states we consider here (Oregon and Illinois). But what about the ties between you, your county, your state, and the US.

You can’t secede from your county, but counties can secede from their state, and the Constitution explicitly provides for it. It’s time to normalize that.

Oregon

The Greater Idaho movement is a set of eastern Oregon counties who don’t believe their state government, overwhelmingly coastal, liberal, and Democratic, represents them anymore. Who can blame them? After the George Floyd killing, Portland descended into nightly riots:

and the sheriffs in neighboring counties refused to help, because the District Attorney declined to enforce the law:

Clackamas County Sheriff Craig Roberts said inundating the city with more law enforcement would not work because Portland’s newly elected district attorney has dismissed charges against hundreds of protesters arrested for non-violent, low-level crimes.

Roberts and Washington County Sheriff Pat Garrett also said the liability for their deputies would be too great amid worries deputies could be sued for actions they take outside their home jurisdictions.

“The same offenders are arrested night after night, only to be released by the court and not charged with a crime by the DA’s Office,” Roberts said. “The next night they are back at it, endangering the lives of law enforcement and the community all over again.”

Here’s Tina Kotek, the Oregon governor after Trump was elected:

I will not back down from a fight whether it's access to reproductive and gender affirming care staying on the path to reach our climate goals protecting immigrant communities …..

Attorney General Dan Rayfield has my full support in his role in defending Oregonian values including joining other states fighting against the unconstitutional attempt to end birthright citizenship. His office needs additional resources to do this work

She manages to ring all the bells in those first two sentences, doesn’t she? It reminds me of The Ultimate Country Song that mentions mother, prison, dogs dying, farms, trucks, and trains.

Oregon’s schools have among the worst test scores in the nation, according to this, while per-pupil spending has climbed:

The Superintendent, Tina Kotek, who also happens to be Oregon’s Governor, has, however, found the bandwidth to express her “alarm” at the Trump administration’s attempt to stop the work of the federal Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, and a host of other federal matters.

Migration

According to this map, Oregon is slightly below the median in terms of population growth. These figures show it losing 0.4% of its population from 2021 to 2022.

Wanting to Secede

The counties in red

have all passed measures in favor of joining Idaho.

Illinois

Corruption

It’s an old, old story. As this ABC story says, “Chicago’s first corruption trial was in ‘69. 1869.”

This is just the latest story of an Illinois public official convicted of felonies:

Michael J. Madigan, the former speaker of the Illinois House of Representatives and a fearsome Democratic power broker for decades, was convicted on Wednesday of 10 criminal counts that included bribery, conspiracy and wire fraud.

The Chicago Tribune did a whole series on Illinois’ culture of corruption.

But Illinois is far better known for a more notorious political legacy: constant and persistent corruption. Four of its last 11 governors went to prison. Chicago, its largest city, is home to sweeping federal sting operations that put busloads of judges, aldermen, state lawmakers and other officials behind bars.

Even the state auditor — Illinois government’s financial watchdog — was once caught looting and squandering $2.5 million in public funds. One secretary of state famously amassed more than $750,000, including a shoebox stuffed with cash, that was found stashed in a hotel room after his death. Read part one of our series.

I grew up there. In Chicago, politics is just the municipal entertainment.

Taxes

Depending on whom you ask, Illinois has the highest tax rates in the nation. The Illinois Policy web site says:

Illinois now levies the nation’s highest state and local tax rates on residents, costing each household $9,488 – or more than 15% of their annual income – in 2022, a new WalletHub report found.

That tax load is nearly 39% more annually than the nation’s average.

The Tax Foundation ranks them #37 on the overall index, but it shows that every neighboring state is much better.

Gerrymandering: Locking in the Party

Once a party attains supermajority status, it can effectively lock out the other party permanently. That’s what’s happened in Illinois. This NPR story details it:

In private mapmaking sessions, Illinois’ all-powerful Democratic majority in 2021 used the state’s population loss to swell Democratic districts — adding one Hispanic-majority blue seat in Congress and forcing two Republicans out of their districts.

Among those who either opted out of their congressional districts — or lost — because of those behind-the-scenes decisions: Marie Newman, a freshman Democrat, and downstate Republican Rodney Davis.

Migration

Illinois has suffered the 2nd worst outmigration of any state (0.8% of its population from 2021 to 2022).

Seceding

Quite a few Downstate counties in Illinois have voted in non-binding referendums to secede from the state, either in 2024 or previously. Indiana has said it’s quite willing to take them in. Some might align with Kentucky or Missouri but I don’t think those states have weighed in.

What are the Hurdles?

The US Constitution creates a very high hurdle for this to happen, which is why it hasn’t.

New States may be admitted by the Congress into this Union; but no new State shall be formed or erected within the Jurisdiction of any other State; nor any State be formed by the Junction of two or more States, or Parts of States, without the Consent of the Legislatures of the States concerned as well as of the Congress.

If those Oregon and Illinois counties want to leave, the state legislatures can just ignore them. Why would they lose that federal funding and possibly one or several electoral votes in Presidential elections? Of course, their states would become even more reliably Democratic without those pesky Republican counties, but that doesn’t register as a big concern to them, given the population figures.

The US County Map

Here are the 2024 election results by county.

We can see that eastern Oregon is entirely red, and southern Illinois is, too, except for the area near St. Louis. Inland California is mostly red.

What other counties voted differently than their state and border a state they’re more aligned with? This is based on 2024 figures. The states haven’t always voted the same way:

1. California counties bordering on Nevada or Arizona

2. New Mexico counties next to Texas

3. New York counties next to Pennsylvania

4. Some Wisconsin counties near Minnesota

5. Some Virginia counties bordering on North Carolina or West Virginia

6. One Missouri county next to Illinois

7. Some Arizona counties next to New Mexico

8. One Nevada county next to California

9. Some eastern Colorado counties next to Kansas

10. Some Minnesota counties next to North or South Dakota

Most, but not all of these are red counties potentially wishing to join red states, but not all (4,6, 7, and 8 are blue).

Realignment

Counties joining a more congenial state should be a normal part of our decennial realignment, like the census. The U.S. Census is provided for in Article 1, Section 2 of the Constitution:

Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States which may be included within this Union, according to their respective Numbers, which shall be determined by adding to the whole Number of free Persons, including those bound to Service for a Term of Years, and excluding Indians not taxed, three fifths of all other Persons. The actual Enumeration shall be made within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct.

Every 10 years, Congressional districts are redrawn to take account of the Census results. The proposal is, in the years before that Census, state borders are redrawn in accordance with referenda and legislative decisions. In our examples, those eastern Oregon and southern Illinois counties would have to vote for secession, their destination states would have to accept them, and the Congress would have to approve it.

The seceding counties would have to think long and hard about moving; maybe having to vote in two elections a year or more apart. Or, for example, in response to the real threat of losing Southern Illinois, the Illinois Legislature might become more responsive to minority wishes.

Here’s how it would happen:

Approvals

We can see from the Constitution that three approvals are needed for these counties to move:

1. Congress

2. The state they’re joining

3. The state they’re leaving

#3 is the hard part, at least for Oregon and Illinois. Part of solving #3 is establishing state realignment as a normal, decennial process. But until that happens, there’s one more step needed to get started:

Federal Funding as the Stick

Let’s focus on Illinois. USASpending.gov latest figures show this for federal funds flowing to Illinois :

For Oregon, we have

Most of this is for food stamps, defense, education, health care, or other Congressionally-mandated programs that probably can’t be touched. The actual list of awards and grants is dizzyingly long and I’ll leave the determination of which ones could be cut to someone familiar with them all. But let’s assume there are some; call them X and Y. Furthermore, often the Federal government makes a commitment of funds but hasn’t delivered them yet; all such commitments would need to be honored.

Here is the proposed US law, in plain English (but not quite legalese). It is not a Constitutional amendment, since the Constitution already provides for it.

No State (“the leaving state”) whose legislature has not approved the wishes of any County (“the leaving county”) to join another state (“the receiving state”) which has expressed approval, and which Congress has approved, shall be granted any funds under X and Y. This denial shall continue as along as the leaving county, the receiving state, or the Congress has not revoked its approval, and the leaving state has not approved. Congress shall pass appropriate legislation to enforce this denial of funds.

The decennial Census must take account of any secessions which have been completed before the year of the Census.

This is the “contested divorce” part: it’s the stick. To the leaving state: if you won’t allow your counties to leave, then the Federal government will withhold some part of its funds.

How Would This Work?

This sets up many hurdles to a county changing state: first, the receiving state has to approve and the Congress has to approve. There are many opportunities for the leaving county to think hard about it, and maybe change its mind when things get real. Finally, the actual denial of funds to a refusenik state has to be approved by Congress. There are many roadblocks preventing an impulsive choice from becoming permanent.

In many cases, the receiving state would gain one or more Congressional seats and the sending state would lose. This would alter the electoral map for Presidential elections.

All of these barriers are deliberate: changing states shouldn’t be done lightly. Nonetheless, many state borders are historical artifacts that are due for a change.