In September, 2023 I published Rock, Paper, Scissors which looked at the Presidential election as a game. I know it’s difficult to step back and see it that way when you want to root for your candidate, but let’s try.
In that post, I predicted, more or less, that the candidates would not be Trump and Biden. Now let’s see how I did, in light of what’s actually happened. You can read the complete article to see what I actually said. The quoted parts are from last year’s article:
If the Republicans pick Trump, the Democrats have to decide if Biden can win again. Maybe they will say, “Yes, of course he will!” Who knows? We know now that they claim to be terrified that he’ll lose. They’re afraid their rock will crumble. Daniel Henninger thinks so, too.
Well, that’s what happened. They were terrified that Biden would lose.
Extreme polarization predicts that neither party can disappoint their partisans and not nominate Biden or Trump. That would be seen as betrayal. That’s where we’re at now.
That abhorrence of “betrayal” held for a long while. What I wasn’t anticipating was the exogenous shock of the June debate. More on that below.
If we remember that we’re being objective and treating this like a game, then the possibility of betrayal becomes a live option. Democrats are all loyal and committed to Biden, until they’re not.
Betrayal happens all the time in politics. Let’s go back to 2007, when Hillary Clinton was the prohibitive favorite. As the Washington Post article said, Obama was seen as unelectable, even by black voters. Clinton was counting on her solid base of support among African Americans. Here are a few examples of politicians whose loyalty was, let’s say, “transactional.”
Bingo. There is no loyalty among politicians. They will betray you in a heartbeat and not even feel bad about it. If you’re getting into that business, you have to accept that.
It’s worth including this video again, since as we all know, life imitates The Godfather:
“Tell Mike it was only business. I always liked him.”
Will the Republicans really nominate Trump? Let’s assume they do, assuming that Democrats won’t betray Biden. Then the decision for Democrats is, “Is dumping Biden like being a Judas? Or is it more like Michael getting rid of Sal?” I don’t claim to know the answer to that one.
It was more like Michael getting rid of Sal: “You’re a loser, so we’re whacking you.”
That June Debate
The really interesting question, which, naturally, our mainstream media shows no interest in, is:
Whose idea was it to have this debate, and how was Biden persuaded to do it?
After all, Presidential debates are traditionally held in September or October. Why have one in June?
That was the stroke of genius on the part of the Master Tactician who thought of it. The party had refused to accept that Biden was too old. Biden himself refused to accept it. There was no possible way anyone or anything could have persuaded him to drop out, or persuade his delegates to abandon him.
We know that with 100% certainty, because even after the debate, he kept insisting he was staying in, with feeble excuses like “I was tired” and “I had a bad night” and “I had a cold.” Obama even pretended to play along, saying, “Bad debates happen. Believe me, I know.” We know what happened eventually, though. George Clooney did the deed first, and everyone realized that he wouldn’t have done that without Obama’s blessing.
Even if we don’t know whose idea it was to have a debate in June, I think we do know why Biden agreed to it: he was delusional about his mental abilities. He really thought he was still the Biden who went up against Paul Ryan in 2012. So the Master Tactician, whoever it was, appealed to his vanity. That is always a good move.
That Tell-All Book We Need
Where is Bob Woodward when you need him? Getting inside a closed circle like the Biden team is the sort of thing he’s done all his life. I look forward to his book telling us:
Who was the Master Tactician who first thought of it?
What did the Biden staff think about it? Were they all in on the scheme?
Didn’t any of them say, “This would be a disaster! Don’t do it!”
What did Jill Biden say when it was first proposed?
I can’t wait.
After Heather Cox Richardson suggested that Biden's choice of a time to announce he wasn't going to run was absolutely amazing timing....I began wondering. Was there a chance it was planned? Why would Biden go into that debate only spouting facts and figures, but never calling Trump on his never answering the questions, or somehow not expecting how divorced from the questions he always is. I think it was Robert Reich who said afterwords, why did no one prepare Biden better for Trump, and tell him not to just spout facts and figures. (I always they they had someone play the opponent as well as they possibly could to get the candidate really in touch with dealing with the style of the opposition.). If so, he sure didn't get that.
If Biden did want to bow out, and work on just being president, given he isn't that great at extemporaneous speaking or maybe even at campaigning, why wouldn't he? But waiting until after folks began saying he ought not to run, could have been clever, especially waiting until after Trump chose a running mate. I know it is not the common belief, but I just wonder. And how fast was Kamala at rising to rhe moment? Awful dang fast, as was her whole staff.